Plutonium isotopes in the ground air layer in southern Poland (2010-2016): Source terms, seasonal variability and correlations with meteorological conditions.

In this study, the results of the analysis of Pu-238 and Pu-239 + 240 activity concentrations on aerosol filters collected from 2010 to 2016 in Krakow (Southern Poland) are presented and discussed. For the first time, the temporal variation of Pu-239 + 240 activity concentration in surface air in Poland was studied using Fourier analysis. The analysis clearly showed that the Pu-239 + 240 content in the near-ground air layer is subject to seasonal variations and demonstrates annual periodicity. Pu analyses were performed using alpha spectrometry. The measured values ranged from 1.93∙10-10 Bq/m3 to 1.31∙10-8 Bq/m3 with an average of 2.07∙10-9 Bq/m3 for Pu-239 + 240 and from 9.07∙10-11 Bq/m3 to 1.27∙10-9 Bq/m3 with the average 1.52∙10-10 Bq/m3 for Pu-238. The analysis of the potential sources of plutonium isotopes in the air aerosols samples indicated that only two samples are uniquely characterized by the ratio corresponding to spent nuclear fuel: February 2012 (0.59 ± 0.18) and February 2015 (0.68 ± 0.19). The remaining samples showed mixed origins, with global radioactive fallout appearing to contribute more than spent nuclear fuel. To study the relationship between Pu-239 + 240 and meteorological conditions, Pearson's correlation and circulation pattern analyses were performed. The analyses showed that the Pu-239 + 240 activity concentration depends on air temperature (R = 0.51), the sum of ice and snowfall (R = -0.45), relative humidity (R = -0.54) and mean total cloud cover (R = -0.56). High concentrations of Pu-239 + 240 were positively correlated with air advection from the southern and eastern sectors, whereas low concentrations were observed during dynamic weather conditions with intense circulation from the western sector. In case of Pu-238 no significant correlation was observed.

A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999-2012.

During 1999­2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999­2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10­20 days, precipitation over the previous 20­30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping.

Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe.

An observed increase in air temperature can lead to significant changes in the phenology of plants and, consequently, changes in agricultural production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the spatial differentiation of thermal resources in Poland and their variability during a period of changing thermal conditions in Europe. Since the variability of thermal conditions is of paramount importance for perennial crops, the study focused on apple, plum, and cherry orchard regions in Poland. The analysis was conducted for the period of 1951-2010 using air temperature daily data. Thermal resources have been defined using the growing degree days (GDD) index calculated independently for the whole year and during in frost-free season for three air temperature thresholds: 0, 5, and 10 °C, which determine the non-winter period, growing season, and the period of full plant growth, respectively. In addition, due to the high significance for perennials in particular, the incidence and intensity of frost during flowering were calculated. In this study, a detailed analysis of the spatial differentiation of thermal resources was first performed, followed by an evaluation of long-term variability and associated change patterns. The obtained results confirmed an increase in thermal resources in Poland as a consequence of the lengthening of the growing season. However, the frequency and intensity of spring frost, especially during flowering or even during ripening of plants, remain a threat to harvests in both the eastern and western parts of the country.

Plutonium isotopes in the atmosphere of Central Europe: Isotopic composition and time evolution vs. circulation factors.

This paper reports evidence of Pu isotopes in the lower part of the troposphere of Central Europe. The data were obtained based on atmospheric aerosol fraction samples collected from four places in three countries (participating in the informal European network known as the Ring of Five (Ro5)) forming a cell with a surface area of about 200,000km(2). We compared our original data sets from Krakow (Poland, 1990-2007) and Bialystok (Poland, 1991-2007) with the results from two other locations, Prague (Czech Republic; 1997-2004) and Braunschweig (Germany; 1990-2003) to find time evolution of the Pu isotopes. The levels of the activity concentration for (238)Pu and for ((239+240))Pu were estimated to be a few and some tens of nBqm(-3), respectively. However, we also noted some results were much higher (even about 70 times higher) than the average concentration of (238)Pu in the atmosphere. The achieved complex data sets were used to test a new approach to the problem of solving mixing isotopic traces from various sources (here up to three) in one sample. Results of our model, supported by mesoscale atmospheric circulation parameters, suggest that Pu from nuclear weapon accidents or tests and nuclear burnt-up fuel are present in the air.

Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications.

We review recent advances in classifications of circulation patterns as a specific research area within synoptic climatology. The review starts with a general description of goals of classification and the historical development in the field. We put circulation classifications into a broader context within climatology and systematize the varied methodologies and approaches. We characterize three basic groups of classifications: subjective (also called manual), mixed (hybrid), and objective (computer-assisted, automated). The roles of cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the classification process are clarified. Several recent methodological developments in circulation classifications are identified and briefly described: the introduction of nonlinear methods, objectivization of subjective catalogs, efforts to optimize classifications, the need for intercomparisons of classifications, and the progress toward an optimum, if possible unified, classification method. Among the recent tendencies in the applications of circulation classifications, we mention a more extensive use in climate studies, both of past, present, and future climates, innovative applications in the ensemble forecasting, increasing variety of synoptic-climatological investigations, and steps above from the troposphere. After introducing the international activity within the field of circulation classifications, the COST733 Action, we briefly describe outputs of the inventory of classifications in Europe, which was carried out within the Action. Approaches to the evaluation of classifications and their mutual comparisons are also reviewed. A considerable part of the review is devoted to three examples of applications of circulation classifications: in historical climatology, in analyses of recent climate variations, and in analyses of outputs from global climate models.

[Ecologic study of the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Poland--presentation of the method]. / Badania ekologiczne ryzyka zachorowan na kleszczowe zapalenie mózgu w polsce --omówienie metody.

Currently an ecologic study assessing the relationship between tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) with diverse environmental and social factors at the lowest administrative level is developed for Poland. Because the disease is affecting only part of the country, the authors will try to identify factors which could explain this uneven geographic distribution of the disease. To increase precision of the analysis we will utilize the highest possible resolution of the analysis, for which routinely collected data are available. Part of the data at the commune level will be obtained from the Polish communicable disease surveillance system and the Central Statistical Office, and part will be obtained using GIS tools from maps prepared by diverse institutions. The outcome studied will be TBE cases assigned to commune of residence or to place of exposure. The explanatory variables will be: land use categories (percent of commune area and their border length), meteorological variables (temperatures, rainfall), socio-economic status of communes (income per capita, unemployment rate), and Lyme borreliosis incidence (as a complex indicator of tick activity and human to tick exposure).